How Many Broadband Subscribers Can Starlink Really Support Today?
A quick capacity model shows why Starlink is already dangerous for weak fixed broadband markets, but not yet a 100 million household killer...at least for now...
A Tier One telco threw me an “acid test” question today. The question was much sharper:
“With around 10,000 satellites in orbit today, how many fixed broadband households can Starlink actually support? 20 million, 30 million, 100 million?”
That question is important because it is not about coverage but about damage. Fixed and cable players do not lose sleep because Starlink can draw a coverage map over the planet; they lose sleep if Starlink can take paying broadband households at scale without destroying its own quality.
I did not have time to run the mental exercise during the meeting. So, as the good nerd I am, I went back after the call and started doing the math. The number was surprising.
And what is even more surprising is how fast that number could change once the V3 fleet enters the game. So let’s try to find out.
The Starlink today: the variables that decide household capacity
Before we calculate how many fixed broadband households Starlink can support, we need to understand what the network actually is.